Participatory scenarios for exploring the future: insights from cherry farming in South Patagonia.

摘要

Narrative-based scenarios were constructed to complement models for exploring the sustainability of cherry production in South Patagonia. The approach involved stakeholders analysing the present state of the farming system and then identifying driving forces for change. Finally, the impact of drivers on the farming sector was assessed using a Delphi exercise to capture expert opinion. Outputs from this exercise describe 3 possible future scenarios, representing "opening to new markets", "quality" and a "regional market". Characteristics of each of these are described in the context of cherry production.