The fiscal 1997 volume forecast for U.S. wheat and flour exports is lowered from USDA's December estimate of 22 million tons to 21.1 million tons, and export value is reduced 300 dollar million to 3.5 dollar billion. Upward revisions in wheat production and export estimates for Argentina, Australia, and the European Union (EU-15), along with reduced import needs by China, translate into larger global supplies and a downward revision in world prices. Argentina and Australia have harvested what is expected to be their largest wheat crops on record. The EU-15 continues to use export subsidies to move some of its record 1996 wheat crop into foreign markets. The fiscal 1997 forecast for U.S. coarse grain shipments is lowered 1 million tons from December's forecast to 55 million tons, but value is unchanged at 7.3 dollar billion. The corn export forecast is reduced 100 dollar million to 6.4 dollar billion, due to a 1-million-ton reduction in export volume to 48.5 million tons. The downward revision in U.S. corn shipments is due to greater than previously expected production and export competition from Argentina and China. The availability of foreign feed-quality wheat also continues to constrain U.S. export prospects. The fiscal 1997 forecast for U.S. rice exports is raised 100,000 tons and 100 dollar million from the December forecast to 2.4 million tons valued at 1 dollar billion. Export prices are revised upward due to very tight supplies of U.S. long grain rice, as well as the limited availabilityof high-quality international supplies. U.S. export volume is revised upward, largely due to an upward revision in Latin American and EU-15 import demand for long grain rice.The forecast for fiscal 1997 exports of U.S. oilseeds and products is raised 900,000 tons and 900 dollar million from the December estimate to 33.6 million tons valued at 10.7 dollar billion. This improved outlook is based on an upward revision in soybeans and soybean meal export volumes and prices. The forecast for soybean exports is raised 700,000 tons and 700 dollar million to 24.4 million tons valued at 7.1 dollar billion. The soybean meal forecast is raised 300,000 tons and 200 dollar million to 6million tons valued at 1.5 dollar billion. Soybean and product prices are higher due to a downward revision in the U.S. soybean crop since December and an upward revision in foreign demand. Foreign demand for soybeans and products is raised due to an increased EU-15 soybean import forecast and a stronger than anticipated demand for soybeans and meal among Asian Pacific Rim countries. A substantial rise in China's imports of oilseeds and products is expected given its 1996 oilseed harvest is significantly below the previous year's record. The fiscal 1997 forecast for U.S. cotton exports is raised 100,000 tons and 500 dollar million from the December forecast to 1.5 million tons valued at 2.6 dollar billion. The improved outlook is mainly due to reducedcompetition from major foreign suppliers, and increased imports by Brazil and China. Production and export estimates for Central Asian suppliers and Pakistan were revised downward, and much of their available higher quality cotton has already been shipped. Argentina's production and exports were also reduced. World prices have risen since December, making U.S. cotton more competitive in the export market.
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