The August forecast for fiscal 1996 exports of U.S. wheat and flour remains unchangedfrom the May forecast of 32.5 million tons valued at 6.9 dollar billion. In fiscal 1997 wheat and flour exports are projected to decline 7 million tons and 2.1 dollar billion to 26 million tons valued at 4.8 dollar billion. This projected decline is dueto reduced volume and lower export prices. Tight domestic supplies, much larger exportable supplies from major competitors, and reduced global import demand will lower U.S. exports. Wheat flour exports are projected at 1 million tons as lower wheat prices are expected to boost sales. The forecast for fiscal 1996 coarse grain shipments is reduced 300,000 tons from May's forecast to 61.1 million tons. However, export value remains unchanged at 9.5 dollar billion. U.S. corn exports are forecast at 55 million tons valued at 8.6 dollar billion, down 500,000 tons but value is unchanged. These revisions are due to the slower pace of shipments than previously expected as some late season purchases were switched to lower-priced new crop. However, tight old cropsupplies have kept prices strong and the overall export value from falling. Higher sorghum exports are expected to partially offset lower corn exports. Fiscal 1997 coarse grain exports are projected to drop 3.l million tons and 900 dollar million to 58million tons valued at 8.6 dollar billion. The prospect of a smaller than earlier anticipated 1996/97 U.S. corn harvest will limit export supplies, cutting corn exports 3.5 million tons to 51.5 million tons. Reduced export volume and somewhat weaker prices are projected to lower U.S. corn export value 900 dollar million to 7.6 dollar billion. Global corn production and ending stocks are projected to rise slightly during the 1996/97 marketing year. U.S. sorghum exports are projected to increase in response to a larger domestic crop and increased foreign demand. The fiscal 1996 forecast for U.S. rice exports remains unchanged from May's forecast at 3 million tons valued at 1.1 dollar billion. Fiscal 1997 U.S. rice exports are projected to fall 700,000 tons to 2.3 million tons, mainly in response to lower domestic production (especially long-grain rice) as less acreage is planted. Export value is projected to slip 200 dollar million to 900 dollar million as higher prices partially offset lower export volume. Prices are expected to strengthen in fiscal 1997 as domestic long-grain rice supplies tighten. Competition from Asian rice should intensify as U.S. prices rise, but demand in Latin American markets is expected to remain strong for U.S. long-grain rice. Japan is expected to import more medium-grain rice to fulfill its GATT minimum access obligations. The forecast for fiscal 1996 exports of oilseeds and products is raised 700,000 tons and 200 dollar million from the May estimate to 30.8 million tonsvalued at 9.6 dollar billion. This is due to the unanticipated strength of soybean and soybean meal exports, each raised 400,000 tons from the previous forecast. Prices have remained high because of the high price of grains. China's continued absence from the market as a buyer forced a downward revision in U.S. soybean oil exports to 500,000 tons valued at 300 dollr million. The fiscal 1997 forecast for U.S. exports of oilseeds and products is 30.8 million tons, unchanged from fiscal 1996. However, export value is raised 800 dollar million to 10.4 dollar billion largely due to higher export prices for soybeans and soybean meal and higher soybean oil exports. Higher prices reflect lower projected global oilseed supplies and lower ending stocks. U.S. oilseed production for 1996/97 is forecast to rise 6 percent from last year's level, however exportable supplies are projected to remain tight due to low carryin stocks. China is expected to enter the world market as a major buyer of vegetable oils, and U.S. soybean oil exports are projected to increase to 800,000 tons valued at 500 dollar million.
展开▼
