The forecast for fiscal 1996 exports of U.S. wheat and flour is increased 300,000 tons and 500 dollar million from USDA's August forecast to 31.8 million tons valued at 5.9 dollar billion. The global wheat market has further tightened in ' recent months with a downward revision in the beginning stocks of major wheat exporters, reduced global production estimates, and little change in global consumption for fiscal 1996. These developments led to a significant upward revision in U.S. wheat prices. Theforecast for U.S. coarse grain shipments in fiscal 1996 is lowered 350,000 tons from August's forecast to 56.2 million tons, but higher prices raise export value 800 dollar million to 7.9 dollar billion. The export outlook for coarse grain shipments is reduced mainly due to a downward revision in sorghum exports. A smaller expected domestic crop and higher prices lowers U.S. sorghum exports by 350,000 tons to 4.2 million tons, while export value remains unchanged. While U.S. corn export volume remains unchanged, sharply higher expected prices raise the value of corn exports 800 dollar million to 7.2 dollar billion. The weather-reduced U.S. crop, the continued absence of China as a major corn exporter, and strong demand from major Asian importers continues to place upward pressure on U.S. corn prices. China is now expected to export only 1 million tons of corn in fiscal 1996, down 500,000 tons from the August estimate. The fiscal 1996 forecast for U.S. rice exports is lowered 200,000 tons from the August forecast to 3.2 million tons, but value remains unchanged at 1 dollar billion. A substantial downward revision in rough rice shipments, mainly because Brazil is expected to import less, lowers the overall estimate for U.S. rice exports. However, U.S.rice prices are forecast higher due to a downward revision in domestic stocks and a tighter global market. The volume forecast for fiscal 1996 exports of U.S. oilseeds and products remains unchanged from the August forecast at 31.2 million tons, but export value is raised 1 dollar billion to 9.9 dollar billion. This is mainly due to an upward revision of 800 dollar million for soybeans to 6.1 dollar billion and an upward revision of 300 dollar million for soybean meal to 1.3 dollar billion. Significantly higher prices for oilseeds and meals reflect sharply reduced U.S. and global oilseed stocks and stocks-to-use ratios. The current year estimates for U.S. and Brazilian soybean crops have been reduced since August, while economic growth in major overseas markets continues to boost global demand. The fiscal 1996 forecast for U.S. cotton exports is lowered 100,000 tons and 400 dollar million from the August forecast to 1.6 million tons valued at 2.5 dollar billion. This revision reflects a larger thanpreviously expected recovery in foreign production, a slight downward revision in world imports, and increased competition in export markets. If this forecast is realized, U.S. cotton exports in fiscal 1996 will total 1 dollar billion less than last year's record. The fiscal 1996 forecast for U.S. exports of unmanufactured tobacco is unchanged from the August estimate of 1.3 dollar billion. The demand for U.S. leaf exports from the traditional markets of the European Union and East Asia is steady.
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