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Identifying Structural Breaks in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models

机译:识别协整矢量自回归模型中的结构破坏

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This article suggests an alternative formulation of the cointegrated vector autoregressive (VAR) model such that the coefficients for the deterministic terms have straightforward interpretations. These coefficients can be interpreted as growth rates and cointegration mean level coefficients and express long-run properties of the model. For example, the growth rate coefficients tell us how much to expect (unconditionally) the variables in the system to grow from one period to the next, representing the underlying (steady state) growth in the variables. The estimation of the proposed formulation is made operationally in GRaM, which is a program for Ox Professional. GRaM can be used for analysing structural breaks when the deterministic terms include shift dummies and broken trends. By applying a formulation with interpret-able deterministic components, different types of structural breaks can be identified. Shifts in both intercepts and growth rates, or combinations of these, can be tested for. The ability to distinguish between different types of structural breaks makes the procedure superior compared with alternative procedures. Furthermore, the procedure utilizes the information more efficiently than alternative procedures. Finally, interpretable coefficients of different types of structural breaks can be identified.
机译:本文提出了一种协整矢量自回归(VAR)模型的替代公式,使得确定性项的系数具有直观的解释。这些系数可以解释为增长率和协整平均水平系数,并表示模型的长期特性。例如,增长率系数告诉我们,系统中的变量期望从一个周期到下一个周期增长多少(无条件),代表变量的潜在(稳态)增长。拟议配方的估算在GRaM中进行,这是Ox Professional的程序。当确定性术语包括轮班假人和断裂趋势时,GRaM可用于分析结构断裂。通过应用具有可解释的确定性成分的公式,可以识别不同类型的结构断裂。可以测试截距和增长率的变化,或它们的组合。区分不同类型的结构断裂的能力使该方法比其他方法更具优势。此外,该过程比替代过程更有效地利用信息。最后,可以确定不同类型结构断裂的可解释系数。

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