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首页> 外文期刊>Operations Research: The Journal of the Operations Research Society of America >GENERALIZED CHEBYCHEV INEQUALITIES - THEORY AND APPLICATIONS IN DECISION ANALYSIS
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GENERALIZED CHEBYCHEV INEQUALITIES - THEORY AND APPLICATIONS IN DECISION ANALYSIS

机译:广义Chebychev不等式-理论及其在决策分析中的应用。

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摘要

In many decision analysis problems, we have only limited information about the relevant probability distributions. In problems like these, it is natural to ask what conclusions can be drawn on the basis of this limited information. For example, in the early stages of analysis of a complex problem, we may have only limited fractile information for the distributions in the problem; what can we say about the optimal strategy or certainty equivalents given these few fractiles? This paper describes a very general framework for analyzing these kinds of problems where, given certain ''moments'' of a distribution, we can compute bounds on the expected value of an arbitrary ''objective'' function. By suitable choice of moment and objective functions we can formulate and solve many practical decision analysis problems. We describe the general framework and theoretical results, discuss computational strategies, and provide specific results for examples in dynamic programming, decision analysis with incomplete information, Bayesian statistics, and option pricing. [References: 33]
机译:在许多决策分析问题中,我们只有有关相关概率分布的有限信息。在此类问题中,自然会问,根据这种有限的信息可以得出什么结论。例如,在分析一个复杂问题的早期阶段,我们对于该问题的分布可能只有有限的分形信息。鉴于这几个裂痕,我们能说出最佳策略或确定性等值是什么?本文描述了一个非常通用的框架,用于分析这类问题,在这种情况下,只要给定分布的某些“时刻”,我们就可以计算任意“目标”函数的期望值的界限。通过适当选择力矩和目标函数,我们可以制定和解决许多实际的决策分析问题。我们描述了总体框架和理论结果,讨论了计算策略,并为动态规划,具有不完全信息的决策分析,贝叶斯统计和期权定价等示例提供了具体结果。 [参考:33]

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