Dynamics of the seismicity of the Kuril arc based on multivariate statistical analysis

摘要

The spatial-temporal distributions of earthquakes in the Kuril-Okhotsk region were analyzed. The events with Ms ≥ 4 from 1980 until 2009 and Ms ≥ 7 from 1910 until 2009 (20576 and 76 earthquakes, respectively) were studied. The specially developed program complex allowed us to obtain the 4-D distribution of the seismic events (along the sections, depths, temporal intervals, and energetic levels). It was shown that the seismic events obviously tend to cluster both along the surface and depth directions. The spatial-temporal analysis of the events (with Ms ≥ 4) in six five-year intervals from 1980 until 2009 has revealed a cyclic increase and decrease in the seismic activity in different time intervals and its cyclic migration from the South through the Central to the North Kuriles and back. The analysis of the strong events with Ms ≥ 7 in twenty 5-year intervals during 1910-2009 has shown that their amount significantly decreased for the last 30 years and the location of the hypocenter depths also changed (only shallow-focus earthquakes have been observed since 1975). The peaks of the seismic activity (1915-1919, 1955-1969, and 2005-2009) are separated by 35-year periods of its decrease.