PORTUGAL

摘要

Moderate growth is projected for 2016 and 2017. Private consumption will strengthen mildly due to lower unemployment, a higher minimum wage and reversals of public sector pay cuts. However, job creation will be too weak for consumer spending to expand at its current pace beyond 2016. High corporate leverage and weak bank conditions have been holding back investment. In 2017, investment will partly recover and somewhat compensate the loss of momentum in consumption. Recent fiscal policy changes are likely to raise disposable incomes, particularly benefitting low-income households. Public debt remains high and putting it on a declining path may require further fiscal consolidation measures.