Change of spring barley production potential using crop model CERES-barley[Czech]

摘要

The main goal of this work was to determine a production potential of spring barley at the given location and its possible changes related to the climate change. The experimental field used for CERES-Barley model validation is situated in the potato-growing region, 560 meters above sea level. Stochastic weather generator Met&Roll was used together with GCM-based climate change scenario to prepare input weather data for the crop model. Sensitivity analysis was performed to reveal the role of key meteorological elements in spring barley production process. This approach makes possible to pinpoint and quantify influence of these weather elements and may help in search for adaptation measures. It was found that the positive direct effect (through higher intensity of photosynthesis) of increased ambient CO2 concentration will be overwhelmed by yet stronger negative indirect effect due to changed climate conditions. In combination of both effects, the stressed yield of spring barley will be reduced by 14% in doubled CO2 conditions. This decrease is mainly due to increased air temperature which shortens the growing period. The barley production potential (ratio of stressed to potential yields) in this location will decrease from present 72 to 60% in 2xCO(2) conditions when both direct and indirect effects are considered.