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China's accession to the World Trade Organization: what is at stake for agricultural markets?

机译:中国加入世界贸易组织:农业市场面临什么风险?

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摘要

We analyze the impact of China's accession to the World Trade Organization on major crop and livestock markets using the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) modeling framework. We incorporate expected changes in consumer income, textile production, and trade policies as exogenous shocks to the baseline model. Following accession, revenues decline in China's livestock, grain, and oilseed industries, while cotton production prospers despite increased imports. Chinese consumers benefit from lower food prices, with vegetable oil, dairy, and meat consumption increasing significantly. Argentina, Brazil, Canada, the European Union, and the United States are the greatest beneficiaries from expanded agricultural trade with China.
机译:我们使用粮食与农业政策研究所(FAPRI)建模框架分析了中国加入世界贸易组织对主要农作物和牲畜市场的影响。我们将消费者收入,纺织品生产和贸易政策的预期变化作为对基准模型的外来冲击。加入后,中国的畜牧,谷物和油料种子行业的收入下降,尽管进口增加,但棉花产量仍在增长。中国消费者受益于较低的食品价格,其中植物油,乳制品和肉类的消费量显着增加。阿根廷,巴西,加拿大,欧盟和美国是扩大对华农产品贸易的最大受益者。

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