Wider roads, more cars

摘要

The transport policy currently followed in many European cities seems to be a combination of investments in public transport in order to increase, or at least maintain, its market share, and road building in order to keep up with expected traffic growth. Apparently, there is a prevalent belief among policy makers that increased road capacity in urban areas does not in itself cause any growth in car traffic worth mentioning. Such a belief neglects the simple economic theory of supply and demand, as well as more specific theories about the dynamics of traffic under congested conditions. An empirical study of commuting patterns in two transport corridors in Oslo, Norway, shows that a considerable proportion of commuters are sensitive to changes in the speed of the respective modes of transportation. The mode chosen depends to a large extent on the ratio of door-to-door travel times by car and transit. Freer flowing traffic in the road network will induce a higher proportion of commuters to travel by car. Conversely, faster public transport will reduce the proportion of car commuters, but the effects of such improvements will be offset if road capacity is simultaneously increased. In addition to the relative speeds of car and transit, the parking conditions at the workplace are of great importance to the choice of transport mode.