Bayesian Discovery Process Modeling of the Lower and Middle Jurassic Play of the Halten Terrace, Offshore Norway, as Compared with the Previous Modeling

摘要

A Bayesian version of the discovery process model was applied to the pre-rift Lower and Middle Jurassic play of the Halten Terrace, Mid-Norway. The Bayesian approach estimates the lognormal parameters, the discoverability parameter, and the distribution of sizes of the undiscovered fields as well as the play potential, conditioned on a discovery sequence averaging for all possible prior choices weighted by their likelihood. This approach avoids the problem of having to make arbitrary choices for the parameters. The estimates of parameters and play potential based upon the present methodology compares well with previous estimates, if the play is divided into two sub-plays representing the overpressured and normally pressured zones. These sub-plays have been estimated independently and aggregated in order to get the total undiscovered resource potential. This study estimates that the expected remaining play potential is 100 X 10~6 Sm~3 o.e, about 9 percent of the total resources in the play There is however a 90 percent chance that the remaining potential ranges from 13 to 282 X 10~6 Sm~3 o.e. and a 5 percent possibility of exceeding this value.