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On the economic determinants of the gold-inflation relation

机译:黄金与通货膨胀关系的经济决定因素

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We examine the long term dynamic relation between inflation and the price of gold. We begin by showing that there is no cointegration between gold and inflation if the volatile period of the early 1980s is excluded from the data. However, we are also able to demonstrate that there is significant time variation in the relation, such that comovement between the variables has indeed increased in the last decade. Examination of the underlying macroeconomic factors that could generate time variation in the gold-inflation linkage suggests gold's sensitivity to inflation is related to interest rate changes, a finding that highlights the monetary nature of gold as a commodity.
机译:我们研究了通货膨胀与金价之间的长期动态关系。我们首先表明,如果从数据中排除1980年代初期的动荡时期,则黄金与通货膨胀之间就不会存在协整关系。但是,我们也能够证明这种关系存在显着的时间变化,因此在最近十年中,变量之间的协同作用确实增加了。对可能在金-通胀联系中产生时间变化的潜在宏观经济因素的研究表明,黄金对通胀的敏感性与利率变化有关,这一发现凸显了黄金作为商品的货币性质。

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