Economic Project Risk Assessment in Remediation Projects Prior to Construction: Methodology Development and Case Study Application

摘要

Probabilistic economic analysis, including uncertainty of probabilities and consequences of project risks, is not widely used in remediation projects. This article presents a project risk assessment (PRA) method to identify, quantify, and analyze risks in remediation projects. The suggested method is probabilistic and includes uncertainty analysis of input variables based on expert judgment. It was originally developed as a part of a sustainability assessment tool, but is viable as a stand-alone tool for remediation projects. The method is applied to a case study: a former paint factory that is being redeveloped into a residential area. The PRA method is used for analyzing and comparing the project risks associated with four remediation options, all including excavation but with different degrees of onsite treatment. The result of the case study application shows which alternative has the lowest mean risk cost, the highest probability to have the lowest risk cost, and how the risk costs are distributed, but also, importantly, helps the user to prioritize between risk-reduction measures.