TWENTIETH CENTURY LAND RESILIENCE IN MONTENEGRO AND CONSEQUENT HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE

摘要

To study the magnitude of land degradation, desertification or resilience in Montenegro throughout the 20th and early-21st centuries, we rephoto-graphed the landscapes recorded on 48 historical photographs dating back to between 1890 and 1985, and analysed in a semi-quantitative way the land use and cover changes that had occurred using an expert rating system (six correspondents). Time-series of hydrology and population density were analysed for the period since 1948 and were compared with the changes observed using repeat photography. Overall, vegetation cover has strongly increased, and barren areas occupy less space. The industrialisation that expanded in the 1950s led to strong urbanisation. Despite steadily increasing population (with the notable exception of the mountain region), the vegetation cover has increased markedly everywhere. This denser vegetation has led to higher infiltration of rainfall. Partitioning of water led, on one hand, to deep infiltration and better low flows and to increased evapo-transpiration at the boundary layer, leading to decreased total runoff coefficients. In the mountain region, runoff coefficients have increased, which may be related to earlier snowmelt. Overall, the findings of this study are in line with observations elsewhere in the former Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia and suggest that, as a result of erosion control and significant vegetation regrowth, the changes observed over a century there has been land resilience and not degradation.