Scenario-based community flood risk assessment: a case study of Taining county town, Fujian province, China

摘要

Community-based flood risk assessment has gained increasing attention as communities are the first responder to disasters and thus the key player of disaster risk reduction. In this study, using a scenario-based risk model and the combination of 1D/2D hydrodynamic model and participatory geographic information system, a methodology for flood risk assessment at the community level is put forward, including flood hazard assessment, exposure analysis, vulnerability assessment, and loss estimation and risk profiling. With this methodology, a set of potential damage/loss scenarios with various probabilities of flood occurrence can be established, and the spatial distribution of the loss in different probabilities can be mapped as well. It is proved that the proposed methodology is effective in flood risk assessment at the community level. The case study of Taining county town shows that the threats and impacts of flood disaster on the community are significant, and it is necessary to take structural and non-structural measures to reduce the flood risk.