Integrating long-term seismic risk changes into improving emergency response and land-use planning: a case study for the Hsinchu City, Taiwan

摘要

An increasing number of rapidly growing urban areas in Asia are becoming more vulnerable to seismic hazards in their development process. However, local authorities rarely integrate seismic risk into the procedure of emergency and land-use planning. This article explores the question of whether seismic risks for urban areas are increasing or diminishing over time, while trends such as population growth and land development in hazard-prone areas increase the potential for loss in disasters. The net effects of such urbanization factors are examined through the use of simulation models that estimate building inventory and seismic loss changes. Seismic losses are modeled for a comparative analysis under the same hypothetical earthquake events hitting at different points in a city area's long-term development. A case study of seismic risk assessments is illustrated by the Hsinchu City, Taiwan. Results of a prospective analysis indicate that, for the same seismic events, overall risk is expected to increase due to a forecast 2.9 % growth in building inventory. This increment in loss is largely attributed to a large amount of initial buildings predicted to be developed into commercial and industrial uses. However, the spatial pattern of risk would change slightly; particularly, the southeastern, eastern, and some older core areas would be the most vulnerable and risky both at current and future time periods. The approach here enables city planners to incorporate seismic risk analysis into predisaster emergency and land-use planning to encourage risk-reduction strategies.