Warm December Threatens To Deep Six 2016 Gas Market

摘要

Traders apparently threw in the towel on winter 2015-16 last week, sending prompt month futures careening to levels not seen in 15 years - and we're not talking constant dollars here. Relative to 2001, January 2016 plunged into the $1.30s. Nonetheless, the fact that traders tested the last solid level of support shows just how bearish the market has turned in the past two weeks. The reason: This month is coming in as the warmest December in the modern record, thanks to a monster El Nino pattern combined with an Arctic Oscillation pattern that is trapping the polar vortex in the far north. This very mild weather has huge implications for the 2016 gas market, especially if the December draw-down comes in at a record low near 200 billion cubic feet.