Gas Price Supports Seen Evolving Into 'Demand Shocks' in 2016-17

摘要

It could be mid-September before the supposition gets tested that prices are in for a tumble once cooling loads wane. However, there's a good chance that shoulder-season pricing will be unexpectedly robust. Why? End-October storage won't test operational capacity around 4.3 trillion cubic feet if lingering heat in the eastern US keeps storage builds within 10% of the five-year average. And while a number of weather-based models anticipate inventories will climb to a still-substantial 3.9 Tcf, that wouldn't bearishly eclipse the 3.93 Tcf all-time high. However, storage is only part of this puzzle, said BNP analyst Teri Viswanath, who sees rising gas-fired power demand supporting prices during the shoulder season and beyond.