Bullish Price Predictions: Perhaps Wishful Thinking?

摘要

DESPITE SOME ECONOMIC INDICATORS to the contrary, the majority of service center center executives polled for MClSPs latest Outlook survey expect metals prices to remain at or above current, very attractive prices in 2006. Seventy percent of respondents to the survey--the subject of this month's cover story--expect steel prices to stay the same or edge up a bit in the coming year. On the heels of two record-setting years, and with basic hot-band selling at over 550 dollars a ton--still well above historical averages-- this seems like wishful thinking. Unlike steel prices, which trended downward through 2005, aluminum prices gained strength during the course of the year as demand remained especially strong in the aerospace sector. Aluminum shipments were up 7 percent for the year, as of November. The majority of respondents to MCN's survey predict further gains in the price of aluminum, averaging 4.1 percent.