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Regionally differentiated contribution of mountain glaciers and ice caps to future sea-level rise

机译:山区冰川和冰盖对未来海平面上升的区域差异性贡献

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摘要

The contribution to sea-level rise from mountain glaciers and ice caps has grown over the past decades. They are expected to remain an important component of eustatic sea-level rise for at least another century~(1,2), despite indications of accelerated wastage of the ice sheets~(3-5). However, it is difficult to project the future contribution of these small-scale glaciers to sea-level rise on a global scale. Here, we project their volume changes due to melt in response to transient, spatially differentiated twenty-first century projections of temperature and precipitation from ten global climate models. We conduct the simulations directly on the more than 120,000 glaciers now available in the World Glacier Inventory~6, and upscale the changes to 19 regions that contain all mountain glaciers and ice caps in the world (excluding the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets). According to our multi-model mean, sea-level rise from glacier wastage by 2100 will amount to 0.124 ± 0.037 m, with the largest contribution from glaciers in Arctic Canada, Alaska and Antarctica. Total glacier volume will be reduced by 21 ± 6%, but some regions are projected to lose up to 75% of their present ice volume. Ice losses on such a scale may have substantial impacts on regional hydrology and water availability~7.
机译:在过去的几十年中,高山冰川和冰盖对海平面上升的贡献不断增加。尽管有迹象表明冰盖会加速浪费,但至少在一个世纪之内(1,2),它们仍将是海平面持续上升的重要组成部分(3-5)。但是,很难预测这些小型冰川对全球范围内海平面上升的未来贡献。在这里,我们根据来自十个全球气候模型的温度和降水在空间上的瞬态,空间差异化的二十世纪预测,预测了由于融化导致的体积变化。我们直接对世界冰川清单〜6中现有的120,000多个冰川进行了模拟,并将变化范围扩大到了19个包含世界上所有高山冰川和冰盖的地区(格陵兰和南极冰盖除外)。根据我们的多模型平均数,到2100年,冰川消融造成的海平面上升将达到0.124±0.037 m,加拿大北极地区,阿拉斯加和南极洲的冰川贡献最大。冰川的总体积将减少21±6%,但预计某些地区将损失目前冰量的75%。如此规模的冰损失可能对区域水文学和水的可利用量产生重大影响〜7。

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