The developments in a rational approach to risk: A practitioner's view over 45 Years

摘要

The use of Risk Analysis as a formal methodology, in both its quantified and in a more subjective qualitative form, has spread over the last quarter of a century. Such use has moved from its application in a narrow range of so-called "high hazard industries" to general use in industry. The importance of Risk Analysis as an aid in rational decision-making has become more generally accepted as a vital tool in such decision-making in a much broader field. A frequent problem remains the attitude to such quantified analysis by those in authority: governments, regulators, and elements of the media who, as Baldwin put it, have power without authority. A distinction should be made between formalised "Risk Analysis" and risk analysis as practised by each and every one of us in decision-making on a minute-by-minute basis.