World Market:July 16-31, 2014

摘要

World arabica coffee futures have recorded strong gains of around 20% in the period under review, while robustas also advanced although not to the same extent as arabicas. The uncertainty around the outcome of the 2014/15 (Apr/Mar) coffee crop in topgrower Brazil prevailed in the second half of July, with some of the latest analyst and industry forecasts pointing toward sharply lower output than had been expected before as well as right after the drought early this year. Major Brazilian coffee exporter Terra Forte pegged the 2014/15 Brazilian coffee crop at 45.8 mln 60-kg bags, down from a February forecast for 47.4 mln bags. This puts the exporter's forecast right in line with F.O. Licht's latest forecast, which we revised down in the second halfof May to 46.0 mln bags from 48 mln previously when it became apparent that the drought adversely affected the development of the beans inside the coffee cherries.The benchmark September arabica contract on ICE rose 32.55 cents, or 20%, between July 16 and July 31 to end at a three-month high of 195.05 cents/lb. The second-month December contract settled at 198.75 cents/lb, up 32.45 cents in the period under review.Robusta futures in London also closed up at the end of July compared with mid-month values. The benehmark September contract added $95, or 4.7%, to $2,104 per tonne, while the November contract finished at $2,089 a tonne on July 31, up $86 since July 16.