Bayesian estimation of finite time ruin probabilities

摘要

In this paper, we consider Bayesian inference and estimation of finite time ruin probabilities for the Sparre Andersen risk model. The dense family of Coxian distributions is considered for the approximation of both the inter-claim time and claim size distributions. We illustrate that the Coxian model can be well fitted to real, long-tailed claims data and that this compares well with the generalized Pareto model. The main advantage of using the Coxian model for inter-claim times and claim sizes is that it is possible to compute finite time ruin probabilities making use of recent results from queueing theory. In practice, finite time ruin probabilities are much more useful than infinite time ruin probabilities as insurance companies are usually interested in predictions for short periods of future time and not just in the limit. We show how to obtain predictive distributions of these finite time ruin probabilities, which are more informative than simple point estimations and take account of model and parameter uncertainty. We illustrate the procedure with simulated data and the well-known Danish fire loss data set.