GRAIN and oilseed markets saw a surprise but, in the event, unsustainable run-up in prices during the period since our last review. Mostly this hump in costs was due to crop weather scares and funds making the most of these in hope of an easy profit.Many of these events were probably over-played, trading off uncertainties rather than major crop damage - so are now receding in importance. That said, one or two key questions still need to be resolved, notably the final size of maize and soya planted acreages in the USA, the world's largest grain and oilseed producing country. There is also an unusually wide range of US yield forecasts for both crops. Markets also need to see the outcome of a European heat-wave, already trimming millions of tonnes offthe maize crop, some changeable conditions at the tail end of an already weather-challenging season in Russia and Ukraine and, not least, the extent to which drought has reduced Canada's wheat, durum and canola crops.
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