Rapid northward progress of monsoon over India and associated heavy rainfall over Uttarakhand: A diagnostic study and real time extended range forecast

摘要

The unusual features of monsoon over India during 2013 was it's rapid progress northward from southern tip of India after normal onset on June. The monsoon covered entire India by 16 June and it witnessed very heavy rainfall in June over many parts of northern India in general and Uttarakhand meteorological subdivision in particular, leading to large scale destruction of life and property. In the present study the diagnostic features associated with this unusual behaviour of rapid progress of monsoon is analysed. The performance of the real-time extended range forecasts based on coupled model outputs is also analysed. The latest coupled model from NCEP (the climate forecast system version 2; CFSv2) with 16 members, Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) with 50 ensemble members and Multi-model ensemble (MME) forecasts are used for this purpose.