A climatological feature with forecasting aspect of heavy rainfall events over Kolkata

摘要

In this paper an attempt has been made to study climatological characteristics and forecasting aspects of heavy rainfall over Kolkata for data of 34 years of period from 1974 to 2007. Total 184 events has been found out and the data set has been subjected to various types of analysis along with favourable synoptic system and critical index for occurrence of heavy rainfall over Kolkata. Average occurrence is found as 5.4 events per year. Monthly distribution shows maximum of 26% events in July followed by September 20%, August 17% and June as 14%. Seasonal distribution naturally indicates maximum of 77% occurrence during monsoon followed by post-monsoon with 14% and pre-monsoon with 09 %. Synoptic analysis revealed that majority of heavy rainfall events occurred due to low pressure system (LPS). Study of 167 cases (during June to October) suggests that when any one of the favourable synoptic condition prevailed over the region and DPD-Wind-PW-WS index reaches a critical value, heavy to very heavy rain occurred over Kolkata and suburban areas.