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A graphical decision-theoretic model for neonatal jaundice.

机译:新生儿黄疸的图形决策理论模型。

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BACKGROUND: Neonatal jaundice is treated daily at all hospitals. However, the routine, urgency, and case load of most doctors stop them from carefully analyzing all the factors that they would like to (and should) take into account. This article develops a complex decision support system for neonatal jaundice management. METHODS: The problem is represented by means of an influence diagram, including admission and treatment decisions. The corresponding uncertainty model is built with the aid of both historical data and subjective judgments. Parents and doctors were interviewed to elicit a multiattribute utility function. The decision analysis cycle is completed with sensitivity analyses and explanations of the results. RESULTS: The construction and use of this decision support system for jaundice management have induced a profound change in daily medical practice, avoiding aggressive treatments-there have been no exchange transfusions in the past 3 years-and reducing the lengths of stay at the hospital.More information is now taken into account to decide on treatments. Interestingly, after embarking on this modeling effort, physicians came to view jaundice as a much more difficult problem than they had initially thought. Comparisons between real cases and system proposals revealed that treatments by nonexpert doctors tend to be longer than what expert doctors would administer. CONCLUSION: The system is especially designed to help neonatologists in situations in which their lack of experience may lead to unnecessary treatments. Different points of view from several expert doctors and, more interestingly, from parents are taken into account. This knowledge gives a broader picture of the medical problem- incorporating new action criteria, new agents to intervene, more uncertainty variables-to get an insight into the suitability of each therapeutic decision for each patient situation. The benefits gained and the usefulness perceived by neonatologists are worth the increased and time-consuming effort of developing this complex system. Although specially designed for a specific hospital and for neonatal jaundice management, it can be easily adapted to other hospitals and problems.
机译:背景:所有医院每天都治疗新生儿黄疸。但是,大多数医生的例行性,紧迫性和病案量使他们无法仔细分析他们希望(并且应该)考虑的所有因素。本文开发了用于新生儿黄疸管理的复杂决策支持系统。方法:问题通过影响图表示,包括入院和治疗决策。借助历史数据和主观判断来建立相应的不确定性模型。采访了父母和医生,以得出多属性效用函数。决策分析周期以敏感性分析和结果说明完成。结果:用于黄疸治疗的决策支持系统的构建和使用已引起日常医疗实践的深刻变化,避免了积极的治疗-在过去3年中没有换血-并缩短了住院时间。现在考虑更多信息以决定治疗方案。有趣的是,在着手进行这种建模工作之后,医生开始将黄疸病视为比他们最初想象的要困难得多的问题。实际案例和系统建议之间的比较显示,非专家医生的治疗时间通常比专家医生所治疗的时间更长。结论:该系统是专门为新生儿科医生设计的,其经验不足可能会导致不必要的治疗。考虑了来自数位专家医生以及更有趣的是来自父母的不同观点。这些知识可以更全面地了解医疗问题-结合新的行动标准,进行干预的新药物以及更多的不确定性变量-以深入了解每种治疗决策对每种患者情况的适用性。新生儿科医生所获得的收益和有用性值得开发这种复杂系统的增加而费时的努力。尽管它是专门为特定医院和新生儿黄疸治疗而设计的,但它很容易适应其他医院和问题。

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