Markets in USA & Canada

摘要

Fragile though it seems to be, leading indicators show that the US economic recovery has more life in it than had been expected in the middle of the year. It could still be knocked off course by such disturbances as an actual general strike in Venezuela or a possible war in the Persian Gulf. The common thread of an interruption to oil supplies unites the real and the potential shock. Both have already resulted in higher international oil prices. This has undoubtedly already deterred a few marginal investments, which would have added to US steel consumption in the medium term. The steel industry certainly needs a boost to final consumption. Figures from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) show deliveries from domestic mills were 1 percent down year-on-year in the ten months to October, but shipments in the month of October alone were 1.4 percent higher than in October 2001. This recent upturn is not necessarily good news. Final consumption of steel remains, at best, uncertain. Extra tonnage leaving the mills is more likely going straight into stocks.