Hierarchical Bayesian modelling with habitat and time covariates for estimating riverine fish population size by successive removal method

摘要

We present a hierarchical Bayesian modelling (HBM) framework for estimating riverine fish population size from successive removal data via electrofishing. It is applied to the estimation of the population of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) juveniles in the Oir River (France). The data set consists of 10 sampling sites sampled by one or two removals over a period of 20 years (1986-2005). We develop and contrast four models to assess the effect of temporal variations and habitat type on the density of fish and the probability of capture. The Bayes factor and the deviance information criterion are used to compare these models. The most credible and parsimonious model is the one that accounts for the effects of the years and the habitat type on the density of fish. It is used to extrapolate the population size in the entire river reach. This paper illustrates that HBM successfully accommodates large but sparse data sets containing poorly informative data for some units. Its conditional structure enables it to borrow strength from data-rich to data-poor units, thus improving the estimations. Predictions of the population size of the entire river reach can be derived, while accounting for all sources of uncertainty.