A Model of Tuberculosis Epidemiology: Data Analysis and Estimation of Parameters

摘要

In this paper a mathematical model that describes the main points of tuberculosis transmission in Russia was constructed. The problem of adjusting the model for a number of regions of Russia was formulated. A method of estimating the model's parameters and basic epidemiological characteristics was developed, where socioeconomic heterogeneity and the heterogeneity of medical service quality are considered. It was demonstrated that the heterogeneity of the prevalence of disease and infection could be governed by both the difference in medical service quality and the difference in socioeconomic conditions. The dynamics of the prevalence of disease and infection under changing socioeconomic conditions was simulated. It was found that improvement of socioeconomic conditions has a positive influence on the epidemiological situation, decreasing the prevalence of disease and infection substantially.