MODEL PARAMETER VALUE ESTIMATION DEVICE AND ESTIMATION METHOD, PROGRAM, RECORDING MEDIUM WITH PROGRAM RECORDED THERETO, AND MODEL PARAMETER VALUE ESTIMATION SYSTEM

摘要

A model parameter value estimator 100 including: a plant model 2 which is a preset physical model simulating an operation of a target product, to which a model parameter value is input, and which computes a process value; a model parameter value estimation section 3 which estimates the model parameter value with a higher likelihood on the basis of the process value; an accumulation section 4 which accumulates a computation result of the model parameter value estimation section 3; and an output section 5 which outputs the computation result of the model parameter value estimation section 3, wherein a measurement value of the target product and a plurality of process values computed by the plant model 2 are input to the model parameter value estimation section 3, and the model parameter value estimation section 3 performs Bayesian updating on a probability density function accumulated in the accumulation section 4 while regarding a function generated on the basis of accuracy evaluation of each of the plurality of process values with respect to the measurement value as a likelihood function. It is thereby possible to provide an estimator and an estimation method for model parameter value estimation capable of estimating a model parameter value even if a distribution profile and statistics for the probability density function are unknown or difficult to estimate.