MODEL PARAMETER VALUE ESTIMATION DEVICE AND ESTIMATION METHOD, PROGRAM, RECORDING MEDIUM WITH PROGRAM RECORDED THERETO, AND MODEL PARAMETER VALUE ESTIMATION SYSTEM

摘要

A model parameter value estimation device (100) comprising: a plant model (2) that is a previously set physical model that simulates the operation of a target product, and inputs a model parameter value and calculates a process value; a model parameter value estimation unit (3) that, on the basis of the process value, estimates the most plausible model parameter value; an accumulation unit (4) that accumulates calculation results from the model parameter value estimation unit (3); and an output unit (5) that outputs the calculation results from the model parameter value estimation unit (3), wherein the model parameter value estimation unit (3) inputs a measurement value for a target product and a plurality of process values that were calculated with the plant model (2), and performs Bayesian updating of a probability density function that was accumulated by the accumulation unit (4), treating a function that was generated on the basis of an accuracy evaluation of the plurality of process values with regard to the measurement value as a plausibility function. Thus, the present invention is able to provide a model parameter value estimation device and estimation method with which a model parameter value can be estimated even when the distribution profile or statistics of the probability density function are unknown or difficult to estimate.