Predicting stand basal area in thinned stands using a dynamical model

摘要

When a forest stand is thinned, its growth characteristics change. Forest analysts who model growth are then faced with the challenge of developing models that can predict stand growth in the post-thinned period, regardless of the particular thinning regime. Using Pinus patula data from the Nelshoogte (South Africa) thinning experiment, a novel discrete-time dynamical model describing stand basal area growth was developed. The model has the form of a first-order difference equation with coefficients that are dependent on stand density. The model is compared against previously published basal area models (developed from the same data as the dynamical model). It is concluded that the dynamical modelling structure offers superior flexibility and accuracy in predicting stand basal area response in the post-thinning period.