Effects of global trade liberalization on US forest products industries and trade: A computable general equilibrium analysis

摘要

This study assesses the effects of tariff reductions represented by the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the Uruguay Round (UR) of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), and the World Trade Organization (WTO) negotiations on U.S. forest products industries using a computable general equilibrium model. Our results indicate that the NAFTA would have very limited impacts on U.S. forest products industries and trade. Global trade liberalization under the GATT/WTO would not significantly change the output, consumption, and price of forest products, but would stimulate international trade and US. exports of forest products. Through altering global forest products trade patterns, trade liberalization beyond the UR would create both opportunities and challenges for U. S. forest products industries in increasingly open and competitive world markets.