Long-term economic impact of countervailing duties on coated free sheet paper imported by the United States from China, the Republic of Korea, and Indonesia.

摘要

The international effects of USA countervailing duties on imports of coated free sheet paper from China, the Republic of Korea, and Indonesia were predicted with the Global Forest Products Model, up to the year 2020. The results indicated that the production of printing and writing paper in China, Indonesia, and the Republic of Korea would be lower. The trade balance would worsen in Korea and Indonesia. China, currently a net exporter would become a net importer. Concurrently, production and prices of chemical pulp would decrease substantially in China. However, because of lower prices in China, its domestic consumption of printing and writing paper would increase. In the USA, the duty would induce little increase in production or improvement of net trade. The main effect would be on the United States' source of imports. While the United States' imports of printing and writing paper from Korea, Indonesia, and China would decrease, the imports from Canada, Finland, Germany, and other sources would increase. Moreover, although imports of printing and writing paper from China would be reduced for a few years by the duty, they would start increasing again after less than a decade. The Canadian industry would gain the most from the duty. Canada's production of printing and writing paper would be nearly 9% higher. The United States would see some increases in producer revenues, consumer expenditures, and value-added, but they would be small compared to the increases in Canada.