Asian economic crisis and the long-term global food situation.

摘要

After 20 years of rapid economic growth, several East and Southeast Asian economies entered a period of serious economic and financial crisis in 1997. The paper explores the impacts of this crisis on global food supply, demand, and trade and food prices under alternative scenarios to 2020 using IFPRI's IMPACT global food model. The role of Asia as a major player in global cereal and livestock markets in the coming decades is unlikely to be threatened by the economic crisis. However, a severe and long-lasting Asian crisis can have a relatively large impact on world livestock markets with China and several Southeast Asian countries shifting from import to export positions in livestock. A severe crisis could also substantially lower the export earnings from food of the developed countries. The most devastating effect of a severe crisis would be on the food security of Asian countries.