GRAIN MARKET REPORT

摘要

Against a background of steadily declining US maize (corn) and soyabean prices as the country began to harvest record crops, and only modest international demand, global grain markets were mostly characterised as bearish in September. For wheat, quality concerns about North American spring crops, especially in Canada, propelled US values higher mid-month but, with the exception of higher protein wheats, prices mostly eased back. Lower grade wheats came under pressure from reduced quotations for BlackSea origin supplies, including Ukraine, and prospects for substantial weather-damaged wheat supplies in Canada. US maize prices fell almost daily, with the nearby futures contract in Chicago dipping to its lowest level in over a year as initial harvestresults appeared to confirm record yields. With cash prices in the US Midwest moving below official support levels, many growers were expected to apply for Loan Deficiency Payments. The avian influenza outbreaks in parts of Asia affected feed demand in some countries, including Thailand, where supplies intended for domestic use were instead offered for export. World barley markets were a little firmer in September, mainly because of some tightening of Black Sea supplies. After August's gains, mainly dueto cold weather concerns, improved weather and an advancing bumper harvest pushed US soyabean futures to their lowest level since October 2002. Rice prices in Asia were pressured by a slow-down in buying, although government measures in Thailand and Vietnam provided underlying support. US rice values dipped on the expectation of a record crop. Ocean freight rates were comparatively strong in September but then eased back due to Asian holidays and a weaker Capesize sector. Renewed strong mineral demandfrom China was expected to underpin the market in the months ahead.