The importance of considering animal body mass in IPCC greenhouse inventories and the underappreciated role of wild herbivores

摘要

Methane is an important greenhouse gas, but characterizing production by source sector has proven difficult. Current estimates suggest herbivores produce similar to 20% (similar to 76-189Tgyr(-1)) of methane globally, with wildlife contributions uncertain. We develop a simple and accurate method to estimate methane emissions and reevaluate production by wildlife. We find a strikingly robust relationship between body mass and methane output exceeding the scaling expected by differences in metabolic rate. Our allometric model gives a significantly better fit to empirical data than IPCC Tier 1 and 2 calculations. Our analysis suggests that (i) the allometric model provides an easier and more robust estimate of methane production than IPCC models currently in use; (ii) output from wildlife is much higher than previously considered; and (iii) because of the allometric scaling of methane output with body mass, national emissions could be reduced if countries favored more, smaller livestock, over fewer, larger ones.