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How Bayes tests of molecular phylogenies compare with frequentist approaches

机译:贝叶斯分子系统发育测试与频频方法的比较

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摘要

The desire to compare molecular phylogenies has stimulated the design of numerous tests. Most of these tests are formulated in a frequentist framework, and it is not known how they compare with Bayes procedures. I propose here two new Bayes tests that either compare pairs of trees (Bayes hypothesis test, BHT), or test each tree against an average of the trees included in the analysis (Bayes significance test, BST). The algorithm, based on a standard Metropolis-Hastings sampler, integrates nuisance parameters out and estimates the probability of the data under each topology. These quantities are used to estimate Bayes factors for composite vs. composite hypotheses. Based on two data sets, the BHT and BST are shown to construct similar confidence sets to the bootstrap and the Shimodaira Hasegawa test, respectively. This suggests that the known different among previous tests is mainly due to the null hypothesis considered.
机译:比较分子系统发育的愿望刺激了众多测试的设计。这些测试大多数是在常识性框架中制定的,还不知道它们如何与贝叶斯程序进行比较。我在这里提出两个新的贝叶斯检验,它们可以比较成对的树(贝叶斯假设检验,BHT),或针对分析中包含的树木的平均值对每棵树进行检验(贝叶斯重要性检验,BST)。该算法基于标准的Metropolis-Hastings采样器,将烦人的参数集成在一起,并估计每种拓扑下数据的概率。这些数量用于估计复合假设与复合假设的贝叶斯因子。基于两个数据集,显示了BHT和BST分别构建了类似于自举和Shimodaira Hasegawa测试的置信度集。这表明先前测试之间的已知差异主要是由于考虑了原假设。

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