The world dairy situation 2002

摘要

World milk production is continuously growing. For the year 2002, it is expected to go up to 594 million tonnes, which is 9 million tonnes or 1.4 percent more than in 2001. Against earlier expectations production in the year 2001 had only slowed down in the first half. After that, growth accelerated again, and this acceleration continues in 2002. Production from bovine animals is expected to increase by more than 1 percent or 5.5 m. tonnes to 501 million and will hold about 84 percent of total of world production. That of other animals milk is growing faster, mainly driven by the increasing share of buffalo milk. This general growth of milk production can be observed in nearly all regions of the world. In particular in the buffalo milk sector, thegrowth is strong and relatively constant over the recent years, and there is no sign yet that this growth could be reduced significantly. The share of the milk produced, which is delivered to dairies for processing is not changing much. In developed markets it has reached a high level, but also in transition countries and in developing countries, the increased prices of recent years have given incentives to increase deliveries more than production. Particularly in Central and Eastern Europe this mighthave been the major driving force for more milk being supplied to dairies. It is mainly in dairy factories that milk products can be produced which can supplied to the markets of other regions or countries. Also major products of the dairy factories arein general in a shape that they can be stored to be supplied back to the market in short supply periods, be they of seasonal or cyclical nature. Thus better balancing of the market over distance and time can be achieved than with farmhouse processing ofthe milk. In the international dairy industry the concentration process in the first half of 2002 was less spectacular than in 2001, when notably the US and the New Zealand dairy industries have caught up to the size of global players. Concentration alsowent on at the lower level, particularly in those countries where most companies have not yet achieved the size to be a big player on the national or supra-national or even on the global scale. The rate of expansion across national borders is growing. Liquid milk sales are continuing to stagnate or even decline in the well developed markets, whereas the other products which offer more convenience and higher added values are still growing and take some of the shares of the traditional liquid milk. Long-life types of liquid milk are growing and this in particular in new markets where the distributions has been poor so far and consumption levels are still low. World butter production has reversed its long-term downward trend in 2001, and it continues togrow in 2002, also now in the United States and the EU. The growth of cheese production is continuing, but it has slowed down somewhat, when it is compared to the situation of the second half of 2000 and the first half of 2001. The growing trend of cheese production and consumption is mainly a feature of developed dairy markets. Their already high consumption levels are boosted by changes of consumer demand at the expense of meat and processed meat products. The expansion of whole milk powder productionis still reduced and is modest, when it is compared to the situation two years ago. It continues to grow the fastest in Oceania and China. The production of skim milk powder has been increased in the year 2001 and the first half of 2002, but it might return to the long-term trend of a slight decline. Significant stocks have been built up, notably in the United States and in the EU. The traditional production of condensed and evaporated milk in cans will continue to fall, but it is expected to grow further in those parts of the world where it is based on imports of milk powder. The generation of liquid whey will increase in the same pace as the production of cheese and casein will develop. By developi