A terminal area PBL prediction system at dallas-fort worth and its application in simulating diurnal PBL jets

摘要

A state-of-the-science meso-#beta#-scale numerical weather prediction model is being employed in a prototype forecast system for potential operational use at the Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport (DFW). The numerical model is part of a uniqueoperational forecasting system being developed to support the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Terminal Area Productivity Program. This operational forecasting system will focus on meso-#beta#-scale aviation weather problems involving planetary boundary layer (PBL) turbulence, and is named the Terminal Area PBL Prediction System (TAPPS). TAPPS (version 1) is being tested and developed for NASA in an effort to improve 1-6-h terminal area forecasts of wind, vertical wind shear, temperature, and turbulence within both stable and convective PBLs at major airport terminal areas. This is being done to enhance terminal area productivity, that is, aircraft arrival and departure throughput, by using the weather forecasts as part of the Aircraft Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS). AVOSS is dependent upon nowcasts or short-period forecasts of wind, temperature, and eddy dissipation rate so that the drift and dissipation of wake vortices can be anticipated for safe airport operation. This AVOSS system will be demonstrated during calendar year 2000 at DFW. This paper describes the numerical modeling system, which has three basic components: the numerical model, the initial data stream, and the postprocessing system. Also included are the resultsof several case study simulations with the numerical model from a field program that occurred in September 1997 at DFW. During this field program, detailed local measurements throughout the troposphere, with special emphasis on the PBL, were taken at andsurrounding DFW in an effort to verify the numerical model simulations. Comparisons indicate that the numerical model is capable of an accurate simulation of the vertical wind shear structure during the diurnal evolution of the PBL when compared directly to specific local observations. The case studies represent unambiguous examples of the dynamics of the Great Plains diurnal low-level jet stream. This diurnal jet stream represents the dominant low-level wind shear-production mechanism during quiescentsynoptic-scale flow regimes. Five consecutive daily case studies, during which this phenomenon was observed over and in proximity to DFW, are compared to the products derived from TAPPS.