Use of fragile geologic structures as indicators of unexceeded ground motions and direct constraints on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis

摘要

We present a quantitative procedure for constraining probabilistic seismic hazard analysis results at a given site, based on the existence of fragile geologic structures at that site. We illustrate this procedure by analyzing precarious rocks and undamaged lithophysae at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. The key metric is the probability that the feature would have survived to the present day, assuming that the hazard results are correct. If the fragile geologic structure has an extremely low probability of having survived (which would be inconsistent with the observed survival of the structure), then the calculations illustrate how much the hazard would have to be reduced to result in a nonnegligible survival probability. The calculations are able to consider structures the predicted failure probabilities of which are a function of one or more ground-motion parameters, as well as structures that either rapidly or slowly evolved to their current state over time. These calculations are the only way to validate seismic hazard curves over long periods of time.