Predicting prolonged length of hospital stay in older emergency department users: Use of a novel analysis method, the Artificial Neural Network

摘要

Objective: To examine performance criteria (i.e., sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value [PPV], negative predictive value [NPV], likelihood ratios [LR], area under receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC]) of a 10-item brief geriatric assessment (BGA) for the prediction of prolonged length hospital stay (LHS) in older patients hospitalized in acute carewards after an emergency department (ED) visit, using artificial neural networks (ANNs); and to describe the contribution of each BGA item to the predictive accuracy using the AUROC value.