Can poaching inadvertently contribute to increased public acceptance of wolves in Scandinavia?

摘要

Illegal killings account for approximately one half of the total mortality of wolves in Scandinavia between 1999 and 2009. Through this period, the wolf population increased to roughly 260 individuals with an annual growth rate of 13.5 % as opposed to the potential of 29.5 %. Barring other interventions, if no poaching had occurred, the projections indicate that the population could have reached almost 1000 animals. During the same decade, attitudes in the public toward wolves have remained stable and positive. In a socio-ecological perspective, the potentially high wolf population growth rate can easily outpace the much slower social dynamics of evolving public attitudes toward wolves. We surveyed a representative sample of the Norwegian public and people living inside the designated wolf zone to ascertain whether reducing wolf population growth rates through poaching may unintentionally have contributed to allowing the public opinion to adjust to the renewed presence of wolves and maintain a high level of acceptance. Findings partly support this hypothesis but also that the greater majority of the public oppose illegal hunting. The results suggest complex links between preferences for wolf population sizes, acceptance for poaching, and beliefs about consequences of illegal hunting. We argue that attitudes are unstable and sensitive to how conflicts develop and are resolved. Scandinavian wolf populations now border on genetic unsustainability. Current policy with extremely low population goals leave minimal room for experimentation. Paradoxically, the only way to maintain positive public attitudes and reduce poaching may be to increase population sizes and simultaneously increase legal hunting quotas.