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BRIEFING Stranded Asset Risk: Big Oil's Trillion-Dollar Question

机译:简报搁浅的资产风险:Big Oil的万亿美元问题

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摘要

Is Big Oil as immune to "stranded asset" risks as it claims? Such risks are normally associated with how the future development of climate policy could restrict demand for oil and impose additional carbon-related costs, making it uneconomic to produce higher-cost, higher-carbon reserves. But a "lower-for-longer" price scenario, in which demand growth is largely met by low-cost production from Opec and US shale plays, could also strand some reserves even without a further tightening of climate policy. And if these two scenarios play out in tandem, stranded asset risks could grow exponentially, as some producers now seem to be acknowledging.
机译:大石油是否像它所说的那样不受“搁浅资产”风险的影响?这些风险通常与气候政策的未来发展如何限制石油需求并施加与碳有关的额外成本有关,从而导致生产成本更高的碳储量不经济。但是,在“不降反升”的价格情景下,需求增长将在很大程度上由欧佩克和美国页岩气的低成本生产来满足,即使没有进一步收紧气候政策,也可能会搁置一些储备。而且,如果这两种情况同时发生,那么搁浅的资产风险可能会成倍增长,因为某些生产商现在似乎已经意识到这一点。

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