The US natural gas market has become a tangle of contradictions, with bullish drivers emerging from bearish trends and once-dominant fundamentals taking a back seat. As soon as the market appears to be emerging from the doldrums that have capped prices at well below $3 per million Btu, the momentum suddenly dissipates again. E&P companies that have to contend with these contradictions are in a tight spot as they plan capital spending budgets for the coming year. Should they trust the signals of a sustained price rise coming from the futures market and boost drilling activity? Or should they stay on the sidelines until an upturn is well and truly under way? The first route carries the danger of a budget-busting misstep, especially if break-even prices prove elusive.
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