Saudis Rush to Sell Oil Before Demand Starts to FallPNEnergy intelligence finance group

摘要

Recent shifts in Saudi Arabia's crude oil exports reflect two major transformations that are occurring in the global oil market. The first of these is the transfer of the market's center of gravity from the Atlantic Basin to the Asia-Pacific region, where demand for oil is still growing. The second, and potentially more disruptive development, is the rebalancing process launched by Opec in late 2014. The thinking behind this was to let market forces drive prices down to a level which chokes off expensive sources of supply such as the Canadian oil sands and deepwater fields, thereby opening the door to increased sales of low-cost oil, in particular from Saudi Arabia and other Mideast producers. For the time being, Opec's "market forces" policy, led by the Saudis, is directed primarily toward the fight for market share in Asia. However, Asia is really just the initial battlefield in a wider war that Opec is waging for global market share. Saudi Arabia is adamant that low-cost oil must play a dominant role in global supply, so the fight for market share in Asia will inevitably be repeated in Europe and the US.