The oil industry has witnessed its share of down cycles, but even seasoned veterans are struggling to make sense of the current price rout. Times of crisis often spur a reflection on the past, as leaders seek lessons to aid their survival. But this downturn, now in its 20th month, is proving a particularly difficult nut to crack, with the most significant threat posed by the potential of prolonged volatility. "This cycle is very nasty," Opec Secretary-General Abdalla el-Badri told the IHS Cera Week conference last week. "Times are tough. You'd almost say they're brutal," added BP's head of upstream, Lamar McKay. You get the picture. Although no oil leader has abandoned the optimism that the industry can adapt organizationally and technologically to survive, this downturn is not merely a nuisance. Even those who have experienced multiple cycles are puzzled about what the future might hold.
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