Rare destructive earthquakes in Europe: The 1904 Bulgaria event case

摘要

Seismic hazard is difficult to assess in regions of low strain rates. A major limitation often relates to the absence of large instrumentally recorded events 'precluding any comparison between seismological data and paleoseismic or morphotectonic informations. We take advantage of the 1904 M-s similar to 7.1 earthquake that struck the southern edge of stable Eurasia and investigate if morphotectonic and paleoseismic observations can provide a reliable estimate of the seismic potential of slow-slipping faults. We have conducted a paleoseismic study of the Krupnik normal fault thought to be responsible for the event. A section of the fault bearing remnants of a 2 m-high scarp has been selected at the base of triangular facets. The trenching site locates where the scarp cuts across colluviums washed from the bedrock facetted slopes. We excavated two neighbouring trenches, one across a well-preserved portion of the scarp, and one across a portion degraded by a landslide. The excavations reveal a set of coarse colluvial units faulted against bedrock and affected by secondary fissures. Faulting appears to have resulted from a single event with normal throw greater than 1.3 in that occurred before the emplacement of the landslide. Accelerator Mass Spectrometry (AMS) radiocarbon dates of charcoal samples are consistent with the interpretation that the Krupnik Fault slipped recently, most probably in 1904, after a long lasting (> 10 ka) period of quiescence. The morphotectonic and paleoseismic observations yield seismic moment estimates compatible with the instrumental magnitude of the event and indicate that destructive and infrequent earthquakes typify the regional seismic behaviour. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.